January 14, 2003

VANCOUVER, WA — A revised analysis (150k PDF) of the Northwest electricity supply is more optimistic about the future, estimating that the probability of power shortages is less than 1 percent this year and no greater than 6 percent by 2007, the Council reported today.

That is a much more optimistic outlook than the Council reported in December, when it appeared the region faced as high as a 15-percent probability of power shortages by 2006. Estimates of when water would be available for power generation during the winter of 2003 and an updated protocol for the use of emergency hydropower made the difference, the Council's Power Division staff reported to the Council today at a meeting in Vancouver, Washington.

"The revised forecast is good news for the Northwest," said Tom Karier, chairman of the Council's Power Committee. "The region's power supply is in better shape than we thought it was, despite the poor snowpack this year."

The Northwest River Forecast Center has estimated January-July Columbia River runoff at 77 million acre-feet, which would be the ninth-lowest runoff since 1929. The average January-July runoff is 106 million acre-feet. The Council's December analysis used the 77 million acre-feet average runoff volume, as does the current analysis, but the current analysis forecasts that more of that water will be available between January and March — the coldest part of the winter when demand for power is highest — than did the December analysis. The current analysis adopts runoff predictions for that time period developed by the Bonneville Power Administration that present a more accurate portrayal of hydropower generation in the coming months.

Additionally, the December analysis used more regional hydropower to meet demand for electricity before power would be imported from outside the Northwest. As a result, the Council's analysis indicated storage reservoirs would be drafted excessively, leading to power supply problems. In the revised analysis, power imports are increased and reservoirs are drafted to low levels only in the event of power emergencies. That is a more realistic operating scenario for the power system, Karier said.

While the January-July runoff prediction is well below average, and while the region relies on hydropower for more than 75 percent of its electricity — most of that from the Columbia River Basin — there is less than a 1-percent chance of power shortages this year because the demand for electricity is still below normal and new power plants were constructed during and after the energy crisis of 2000-2001, Karier said. Since January 2000 approximately 410 megawatts of wind power, 2,600 megawatts of natural gas-fired power plants and 200 megawatts of energy conservation have been added to the region's power supply. Collectively, that 3,210 megawatts is enough to supply more than 2.5 million homes. Construction has been suspended on three other plants totaling almost 1,200 megawatts. These could be completed relatively quickly when needed.

"Despite the improved outlook, we need to remember that the Northwest is very dependent on hydropower and vulnerable to the variability of weather," Karier said. "While we will not have problems in the next few years, at some point in the future, if we are not careful, low wholesale power prices again could discourage investments in generation and conservation, and we could again experience high prices as demand increases and the supply does not."

The Council will address this problem, and make recommendations for how to avoid it, in the next version of its Northwest Power Plan. The Council expects to complete the plan this summer.

The Council is an agency of the states of Idaho, Montana, Oregon and Washington and is directed by the Northwest Power Act of 1980 to prepare a program to protect, mitigate and enhance fish and wildlife of the Columbia River Basin affected by hydropower dams while also assuring the region an adequate, efficient, economical and reliable power supply.