Press release: Reduced demand for power, coupled with increased supply improves winter power outlook

 Communications    Press releases 

• Tom Karier, Power Committee Chairman, 509-623-4386
• John Harrison, information officer, 503-222-5161

• Analysis of Winter 2001-2002 Power Supply Adequacy
• Winter 2001-2002 power supply outlook (125k PowerPoint)
• Reliability standards for the Northwest power system (40k PDF)
• Oregonian article

October 17, 2001

PORTLAND -- The Pacific Northwest will have an adequate electricity supply through the winter of 2001-2002 thanks to actions taken this year to increase the supply and reduce demand for power, the Northwest Power Planning Council predicted today.

In the last year, power plants capable of generating more than 900 megawatts - nearly enough for the city of Seattle -- have been added to the region’s power supply, demand for power has been reduced by 20 percent and hydroelectric storage reservoirs have filled to normal levels. But the improved outlook comes at a cost to the region’s economy and environment, according to the latest installment of an ongoing Council analysis. For example:

• A large portion of the demand reduction was in industries responding to high power prices and the economic recession, and that translated to lost jobs.
• Temporary power generators, most of them burning diesel, helped boost the energy supply, but also polluted the air more than other types of power plants.
• Reduced water spills at Columbia and Snake River dams increased the amount of stored hydropower, but also took a toll on migrating salmon and steelhead by forcing those that could not be collected for barge transportation downriver to go through turbines.

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“According to our analysis, there is less than a 1-percent probability of power deficits this winter,” said Tom Karier of Spokane, chairman of the Council’s four member Power Committee that reviewed the analysis today. “That is a vast improvement over the 12-percent probability we predicted just last spring. The region’s response to the energy crisis was impressive. The actions taken this year should help keep the power supply adequate and make it less likely that we will face a similar crisis, and the difficult decisions that came with it, in the future.”

The power system is considered adequate if there is no more than a 5-percent probability of a deficit that cannot be resolved with the existing power supply. The Council does not forecast the probability of brownouts or blackouts, but deficits of any size.

According to the analysis, the impact of drought reduced the region’s hydropower supply by about 4,000 megawatts - nearly enough power for four Seattles. Last winter, as tight power supplies drove wholesale prices to ten times the normal price, the Council warned that the region’s deficit could worsen significantly by the end of 2001 unless emergency actions were taken.

The region responded in many ways. Construction of new power plants was accelerated, both in the Northwest and in California, and that boosted the Northwest power supply and may also make more available to the region from the south. Water spills at Snake and Columbia river dams to assist fish migration were reduced, and that had the effect of increasing water storage for hydropower. The region also significantly reduced its demand for power, but much of the reduction was in industries that responded to high power prices and the developing recession by cutting production and, in some cases, going out of business. Citizens also contributed by reducing their demand for power through actions such as installing compact fluorescent light bulbs, turning down electric water heaters and simply using less electricity in response to rate hikes, but the precise savings from these efforts is not known.

The result is that the region’s demand for electricity is 4,000 megawatts lower today than it was a year ago, a 20-percent reduction. Nearly 60 percent of that reduction is attributable to the idled Northwest aluminum industry, according to the analysis. The analysis anticipates that the economic recession, and demand for power as a consequence, will begin to rebound by the middle of 2002.

Increased supply and reduced demand, coupled with mild summer weather, allowed the region to avoid brownouts and blackouts. In hindsight, the Council’s prediction last June of a 12-percent probability of deficits by the winter might have been too conservative, Karier said, but it was based on the best available information at the time.

“This has been a bad year for fish, for aluminum company employees and for ratepayers who have seen their rates go up dramatically. But there is every indication now that we are back on track for a better year,” Karier said. “Some will say that our analysis last summer was too pessimistic, but what we did was to encourage a cautious operation of the power system. There is a lot of uncertainty in this kind of analysis. In hindsight, it’s easy to look back and say we could have done something differently in our analysis, but we didn’t know how the cards would fall, and it just turns out they fell in the region’s favor. They could have fallen the other way, and if they had we might be in a worse position today,” Karier said.

The Council is an agency of the states of Idaho, Montana, Oregon and Washington and is directed by the Northwest Power Act of 1980 with preparing a program to protect, mitigate and enhance fish and wildlife of the Columbia River Basin that have been affected by hydropower while also assuring the region an adequate, efficient, economical and reliable power supply.

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