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This memo discusses the consideration of ocean conditions and their impacts on fish and wildlife populations by the Northwest Power Planning Council (Council) in the context of direct program funding recommendations. Congress amended the Northwest Power Act in 1996 to call for, among other things, the Council to "consider the impact of ocean conditions on fish and wildlife populations" in making its recommendation to the Bonneville Power Administration regarding funding hydropower mitigation projects. The Council responded in part by releasing and adopting as policy an Issue Paper entitled "Consideration of ocean conditions in the Columbia River Basin Fish and Wildlife Program" (Issue Paper 97-6), on June 3, 1997. Since then, ongoing progress in several areas has firmly established the concepts of ocean variability and its effects on salmonid populations as an integral part of the Council's fish and wildlife agenda. The following categories summarize this progress:
1. Advancement of the Council's Issue PaperThe Issue Paper adopted by the Council in 1997 stated the following three general principles to guide the Council in the consideration of ocean impacts: Principle 1: The Council views the estuary of the Columbia River, its nearshore discharge plume, and adjacent marine area as part of an ecosystem that includes the Columbia River Basin itself. This view, which is referenced in the report of the Independent Scientific Group (Return to the River: Restoration of Salmonid Fishes in the Columbia River Ecosystem) and elsewhere, is based on the understanding that freshwater and marine environments are not independent from one another. The abundance of salmon reflects the overall condition of the entire ecosystem and, therefore, variability in the conditions of both the freshwater and marine environments. Principle 2: Salmon and steelhead in the Columbia River accommodate ocean mortality and environmental variability through a sufficient level of productivity and a wide range of biological diversity. A broad array of biological characteristics within and between salmon populations provides different options for dealing with environmental variability. As a result, taking ocean conditions into account turns our attention to improving management actions that can restrict the natural expression of biological diversity in salmon populations and lessen the ability of salmon and steelhead to withstand environmental fluctuations. Principle 3: The Columbia River estuary and near-shore plume are important ecological features that likely have been, and continue to be, negatively impacted by upriver management actions and local habitat change. The quality and quantity of these areas could be modified by means of upstream flow regulation and construction of dams. Evidence suggests that the estuary and near-shore marine areas are critical determinants of the success of juvenile salmon entering the ocean. Based on these points, consideration of ocean conditions could include evaluation of flow regulation and river operations in regard to their impacts on the estuary and near-shore marine areas. The concepts encapsulated in these principles were referenced in the report of the Independent Scientific Group (Return to the River: Restoration of Salmonid Fishes in the Columbia River Ecosystem) (Williams et al., 1996). Further, since the release of the Council's Issue Paper, these principles have been added to the available scientific literature and referenced by other initiatives underway. The Council's Issue Paper was edited according to format specifications and has been accepted for publication in the Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, a well recognized peer-reviewed journal of worldwide circulation. Completion of the printing process is currently underway with a schedule for final release in the September 1998 issue of the journal (Volume 55, Number 9). The Fiscal Year 1999 report to the Council by the Independent Scientific Review Panel (ISRP) (ISRP 98-1, June 15, 1998) references both the Council's Issue Paper and the journal publication. The ISRP's comments endorse the fundamental principles contained in these documents and highlight the value of incorporating these principles into a sound approach to ecosystem restoration. Principles 1, 2 and 3, listed above were also incorporated into the scientific foundation for developing and evaluating fish and wildlife recovery strategies. The scientific foundation (See NPPC publication 98-16, July 1998) is a fundamental building block for the completion of the proposed multi-species Program framework currently under development by representatives of state, federal and tribal governments. 2. New initiativesDuring Fiscal Year 1998, the Council recommended the funding of three new initiatives to gain a better understanding of the relationship between current or potential in-river mitigation strategies, biological requirements of different salmonid life histories, and impacts of ocean conditions, whether manifested in the estuary, the plume, or the coastal ocean. Consistent with the principles listed above, the Council believes that the first response to challenging ocean conditions is to understand the following: 1) relative significance of alterations to environmental attributes in fresh water, and 2) relative significance of shifts away from the natural diversity of salmon life histories. : Recommended initiative #1: The Council recommends a budget placeholder intended for a synthesis of what is known about the impacts of the construction and operation of the Columbia River hydroelectric system on the hydrology, habitats and ecology of the Columbia River estuary and river plume and opportunities for management actions related to this understanding. An analysis of this kind will primarily identify available information pertaining to the estuary and nearshore plume, and current knowledge gaps in these areas. It will also assist the Council in determining whether this is a field in need of more research and planning in future funding cycles. Action: The Council's Annual Implementation Work Plan for Fiscal Year 1998 identified near-ocean and estuary research as one of the three new research initiatives to start during that fiscal year, at a suggested cost of $150,000 from Bonneville's direct fish and wildlife budget. The study, "Impacts of hydroelectric development and operation on the Columbia River estuary and nearshore plume," was originally conceived as a target for an open solicitation process. During the planning phase of this process, however, the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) announced the initiation of a long-term study in the estuary and plume of the Columbia River. The proposal by NMFS, initially submitted for review within the regional prioritization process for Fiscal Year 1999, was further expanded to include observations of the El Ni? conditions, and proposed to initiate this work during Fiscal Year 1998 (See item 3, below). In light of this new work initiated by NMFS, the Council explored the possibility of folding the research project outlined in the Annual Work Plan into some of the tasks described in the larger initiative sponsored by the Fisheries Service. While the new start project called for a review of existing research and associated analytical work, NMFS proposals expanded those tasks into the empirical collection of field and fish data. Proceeding with the new start and NMFS? work at the same time appeared to result in a likely duplication of efforts. Therefore, in April 1998, the Council decided to remove the near-ocean and estuary research study from the list of new starts, with the expectation that it will be covered by the proposed NMFS study. Recommended initiative #2: The Council recommends a budget placeholder to implement a study proposal to assess the impacts of development and operation of the Columbia River hydroelectric system on mainstem riverine processes and salmon habitats. Action: The Council's Annual Implementation Work Plan for Fiscal Year 1998 described the specific elements of a new research study to focus on the "Assessment of the impacts of development and operation of the Columbia River hydroelectric system on mainstem riverine processes and salmon habitats." A competitive open solicitation process was initiated to select a qualified project proposal to carry out this work. In July 1998, a contract was awarded to Battelle's Pacific Northwest Division, with a performance period of one year beginning August 3, 1998. The project would rely largely on existing information on riverine habitat lost to development and operation of the Columbia River hydroelectric system and the types of ecological modification that have occurred, and suggest areas or actions with particular potential for restoration of riverine habitat and processes. Under the same competitive process, a second study "Assessment of population structure in Columbia River chinook salmon and steelhead and its application to existing populations", was awarded to the University of Idaho during Fiscal Year 1998. The performance period of this contract is identical to the previous one. These two studies complement each other and will highlight historical and recent alterations in available habitat, which may have a significant effect on the array of salmon life histories. Diversity in life histories, in turn, provides a mechanism to accommodate environmental variability, whether freshwater or marine. Recommended initiative #3: The Council recommends a budget placeholder for a comprehensive review of artificial production in the region, to analyze and recommend critical needs for production-related research and evaluations. Action: Early last year the Council began discussions with regional interests about a review of artificial production in the Columbia River Basin. Last summer, Congress called for the Council to do such a review. This review will focus on all salmon and resident fish artificial production regardless of funding source or purpose, but it will include interactions with other aspects such as natural production, harvest, and mainstem/tributary habitat. This comprehensive analysis will focus on the impacts of artificially produced fish on wild anadromous and resident fish runs, specifically on 1) the alterations, whether beneficial or detrimental, to the biological diversity of these populations (i.e., the potential to respond to changing environmental conditions), and 2) a population overload, in excess of the environmental carrying capacity. Again, the makeup and interactions between life histories originated from the Columbia Basin will dictate the relative success in reproduction and survival of those fish best fit to a changing environment. The product of the review will be a report to Congress, and is currently scheduled for June 1999. 3. Submittals to Bonneville for Fiscal Year1999 fundingThe collection of proposals under this research area in Fiscal Year 1999 consists of three new submittals (9035, 9063, 9157) and one renewal (9702600). Only one of the proposed new starts (9063) received a favorable review and endorsement from both the fish managers and the Independent Scientific Review Panel.
Proposal 9063 by NMFS, was initially submitted for review within the regional prioritization process for Fiscal Year 1999. While this proposal was being evaluated, the National Marine Fisheries Service decided to proceed with the proposed tasks, invoking authorities contained in the Biological Opinion. Further, NMFS proposed to initiate this work during Fiscal Year 1998, to include observations of current El Ni? conditions. Initially, NMFS has scheduled the overall study to last 10 years, budgeted at some $750,000 per year, until 2009. The initial tasks identified for Fiscal Year 1998 carried a request of $255,000. The NMFS has also requested that both these proposals be funded from the money reserved for implementation of Endangered Species Act activities contained in the Biological Opinion. The work proposed by NMFS, both for Fiscal Year 1999 and Fiscal Year 1998 is conceptually very thorough and technically relevant. These efforts bring together some of the best resources in the region and seem to be well coordinated with other larger multiagency projects in the Pacific Northwest. The study by NMFS represents a coordinated effort between the Oregon Graduate Institute of Science and Technology, the College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences of Oregon State University and other regional experts. This effort intends to measure the effects of time of entry and smolt quality, food habits, growth, and bioenergetic status of juvenile coho and chinook salmon on survival in relation to oceanographic features of the nearshore ocean environment associated with the Columbia River plume. On April 1998, the Council decided to remove a proposed estuary and near-ocean research initiative from a list of projects identified as new research studies for Fiscal Year 1998 (See recommendation initiative No. 1 under Item 2, above). This decision was based on the perception of a large degree of overlap between the new research study and proposal 9063 by NMFS. Instead, the Council instructed its staff to work with Bonneville and NMFS to ensure that the original tasks identified in the proposed 1998 study were adequately included under proposal 9063. Council staff is currently negotiating the terms of this arrangement with NMFS. 4. Relevant efforts by other agenciesConsideration of the impact of ocean conditions on fish and wildlife populations is not exclusive to the Council's fish and wildlife program. A number of multidisciplinary efforts and programs, whether regional, national, or international, continue to devote significant efforts on research, monitoring and evaluation to understand the forces driving variability in the northeastern Pacific Ocean and how these affect ecosystem productivity. The Council's issue paper described some of these contemporary initiatives. The Council continues to learn about the progress and accomplishments of these efforts and explores possibilities for cooperation and interaction. Staff continues to monitor these and other activities and keep the Council informed of significant developments. What follows is a summary -- not intended to be an exhaustive list -- of recent developments: Title: The U.S. Global Ocean Ecosystems Dynamics (U.S. GLOBEC) Web site: www.usglobec.berkeley.edu/usglobec/globec.homepage.html Sponsor: National Science Foundation, and the Coastal Ocean Program (COP) and the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) divisions of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Contact: Harold P. Batchelder, U.S. GLOBEC Coordinating Office, Department of Integrative Biology, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720-3140, phone: (510) 642-7452, fax: (510) 643-1142, e-mail: . Brief description: This research has a goal of understanding how physical processes influence marine ecosystems, to predict the response of the ecosystem to climate change. The U.S. GLOBEC has initiated a major six to eight year program in the Northeast Pacific to examine the linkages among climate change, ocean physics and marine animal populations, with emphasis on nearshore planktonic species, juvenile salmon in the coastal zone, and the species that prey upon salmon. The anticipated funding for the initial activities in this study is approximately $2.5 million per year, for up to three years. In late 1997, thirteen projects were funded to begin U.S. GLOBEC's scientific research program in the ecosystems of the Northeast Pacific. U.S. GLOBEC Modeling Projects
U.S. GLOBEC Retrospective Data Analysis Projects
U.S. GLOBEC Long-Term Observation Program Projects
Title: The Pacific Northwest Coastal Ecosystem Regional Study (PNCERS) Web site: www.seagrant.orst.edu/~pncers Sponsor: Oregon Coastal Management Program, the Oregon and Washington Sea Grant Programs, and the National Marine Fisheries Service Northwest Fisheries Science Center. Contact: Greg McMurray, PNCERS Program Office, Department of Environmental Quality, 811 SW Sixth Avenue, Portland, OR 97204-1390, phone: (503) 229-6978, fax: (503) 229-6124. Brief description: This program is expected to last five years and spend a total of about $5 to $6 million. The goal of the PNCERS program is to improve the understanding of natural variability and human factors on coastal ecosystems that support Pacific salmon, and to translate that understanding into improved management of resources and activities that affect coastal ecosystems. The program seeks to understand: 1) the variability in coastal ecosystem processes in the nearshore ocean and continental shelf, estuaries, and coastal streams; 2) how these processes fluctuate naturally over various time scales; 3) how human activities effect them; 4) how social and economic reliance on them are affected by these changes; and 5) how natural resources can be better managed given improved information on the above. In May 1997, an interdisciplinary team of scientists from throughout the Northwest was selected to carry out a five-year program of research to meet PNCERS' objectives. The team includes researchers from the U. of Washington, U. of Oregon, Oregon State University, and Battelle Northwest Laboratories. Title: The Lower Columbia River Estuary Program Web site: www.waterquality.deq.state.or.us/lcrep/default.asp Sponsor: Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and States of Oregon and Washington Contact: Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, Water Quality Division, 811 SW Sixth Ave., Portland, OR 97204, phone: (503) 229-5766, fax: (503) 229-6124, or e-mail Brief description: The Lower Columbia River was entered into the National Estuary Program (NEP) in July 1995. There are four phases to an NEP designation: 1) convening the Management Conference to develop a Comprehensive Conservation and Management Plan (CCMP); 2) characterizing the estuary and defining priority problems; 3) developing the CCMP; and 4) monitoring CCMP implementation. Completion of the CCMP for the Lower Columbia River Estuary is schedule for July 1, 1999. The Lower Columbia River Estuary Program has a three-fold purpose: 1) to identify environmental problems, evaluate how the resource is being managed, and recommend priority corrective actions; 2) to support the development of management plans to improve the ecological integrity of the estuary; and 3) to provide a forum for consensus building among river users and interested parties. Title: The Columbia River Estuary Study Taskforce (CREST) Web site: www.csc.noaa.gov/products/crest/htmlgifs/crest.htm Sponsor: Council of Governments that includes the local counties, cities, and port districts surrounding the Columbia River Estuary in Oregon and Washington Contact: Kathy Taylor, Executive Director, 750 Commercial Street, Room 205, Astoria, OR 97103, phone (503) 325-0435, fax: (503) 325-0459 Brief description: The Columbia River Estuary Study Taskforce (CREST) is a regional organization providing a forum for members to identiy and discuss issues of regional importance; monitor and comment on governmental activities related to the development and management of the natural, economic, and human resources of the Columbia River Estuary; and improve communication and cooperation between member governments. CREST is currently assisting local jurisdictions with permitting issues; zoning ordinances, comprehensive plans, and shoreline master program amendments; estuarine impact analyses; wetlands related issues; and dredging and dredged material disposal issues. Special projects include development of a geographic information system (GIS) natural resource and planning database; environmental education programs; wetland restoration; and a driving tour brochure of the cultural and natural resources of the Columbia River Estuary. Title: The Coastal Change Analysis Program (C-CAP) Web site: www.csc.noaa.gov/ccap/ Sponsor: NOAA Coastal Services Center Contact: Donald W. Field, C-CAP National Program Coordinator, NOAA Coastal Services Center, 2234 South Hobson Ave., Charleston, SC 29405-2413, phone (843) 740-1233 Brief description: C-CAP classifies types of land cover, analyzes and monitors changes in coastal submerged habitats, wetland habitats, and adjacent uplands using remote sensing techniques (satellite imagery and aerial photography). Through this analysis, scientists can correlate the changes in terrestrial regions with those in coastal aquatic habitats, and with changes in the distribution, abundance, and health of living marine resources. The program is managed through the NOAA Coastal Services Center in coordination with the National Marine Fisheries Service and with technical support from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory. In the Northwest, C-CAP entered into a cooperative project with CREST, NMFS and the States of Oregon and Washington to perform a land cover classification and change detection analysis for the Columbia River coastal drainage area from Willapa Bay (WA) south to Tillamook Bay (OR) using satellite remote sensing technology. Title: CORIE - Towards a nowcast-forecast system for the Columbia River estuary Web site: www.ccalmr.ogi.edu/ Sponsor: Oregon Graduate Institute of Science and Technology, Center for Coastal and Land-Margin Research, Contact: Antonio Baptista, Oregon Graduate Institute of Science and Technology, P.O. Box 91000, Portland, OR, 97291-1000, phone: (503) 690-1147, fax: (503) 690-1273 Brief description: CORIE is a pilot nowcast-forecast system for the Lower Columbia River. Nowcast-forecast systems are a familiar feature of modern weather forecasting, enabling the efficient characterization of present conditions over a selected geographical area (nowcast mode) and prediction of future conditions (forecast mode). CORIE is designed to integrate real-time monitoring of hydrologic and meteorological conditions with state-of-the-art computer models to characterize and predict complex circulation and mixing processes in a system encompassing the lower river, the estuary and near-shore coastal waters. Title: The Climate Variability and Predictability Program (CLIVAR) Web site: www.clivar.ucar.edu/hp.html Sponsor: The World Climate Research Program, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the International Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU) and the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) Contact: John Gould, director, International CLIVAR Project Office, c/o Max-Planck-Institut fur Meteorologie, Bundesstrasse 55, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany, phone: 49-40-41173-412, fax: 49-40-41173-413 Brief description: The task for this new fifteen year (1995-2010) interdisciplinary research program is to study climate variability and predictability and the response of the climate system to human actions. Goals within CLIVAR are to: 1) describe and understand the physical processes responsible for climate variability and predictability on seasonal, interannual, decadal, and centennial time-scales. This would occur through 1) the collection and analysis of data and the development of models of the climate system; 2) study seasonal-to-interannual climate variability and predictability of the global ocean-atmosphere-land system; 3) study decadal-to centennial climate variability and predictability, and 4) model and detect human-caused climate change. Title: The EPIC System Web site: www.pmel.noaa.gov/epic/ Sponsor: NOAA's Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL) Contact: Donald Denbo, at NOAA's Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, WA 98115, phone: (206) 526-4487, e-mail: Brief description: Provides data archival, retrieval, display and analysis procedures for oceanographic data. EPIC was developed to manage the large numbers of oceanographic data sets collected as part of NOAA climate study programs, such as CLIVAR and others. At present, PMEL maintains approximately 100,000 individual data sets in the EPIC database. Portions of the data are freely available outside PMEL via the World Wide Web. Title: The Coastal Ocean Processes (CoOP) Program Web site: www.hpl.umces.edu/coop/ Sponsor: National Science Foundation's (NSF) Division of Ocean Sciences, NOAA, and the Office of Naval Research (ONR) Contact: The CoOP Office, Univ. of Maryland-CEES, Horn Point Laboratory, P.O. Box 775, Cambridge, MD 21613-0775, phone: (410) 221-8416, fax: (410) 221-8490 Brief description: This inter-disciplinary effort aims to provide a quantitative understanding of the processes that control the transport, transformation and fate of biological, geological and chemical material on the continental margins. CoOP's goal in studying the California Current System of the Northeast Pacific is to understand the processes that contribute to cross-shelf transports where the circulation is strongly wind-driven. The West Coast component of CoOP began through the approval of the project Circulation and Ecosystem Modeling for the Oregon Coast (Oregon State University), with the general objective of understanding and being able to model physical oceanographic circulation processes and accompanying ecosystem dynamics in the continental shelf off the U.S. Northwest Pacific coast. Title: The Oregon Plan for Salmon and Watersheds Web site: www.oregon-plan.org/ Sponsor: State of Oregon and community based efforts Contact: Jim Martin, governor's Natural Resources Office, Public Service Building, 3rd floor, Salem, OR 97310, phone: (503) 378-8582, fax: (503) 378-3225. Brief description: This plan focuses on conserving and restoring native coastal salmon populations and will conserve and restore crucial elements of natural systems that support fish, wildlife and people. The Plan consists of four essential elements: (1) Coordinated agency programs, (2) Community-based action, (3) Monitoring, and (4) Appropriate corrective measures. Many of the tasks included in this effort directly address ocean conditions and their impact on salmon. The Oregon Plan was developed over a two-year period, initially to restore coastal populations of coho and steelhead. The 1997 Legislature provided $32 million to implement the plan. Governor John Kitzhaber announced that the state will proceed with full implementation of the Oregon salmon recovery plan despite the listing of Oregon coastal coho by the National Marine Fisheries Service in August 1998. Title: The Columbia River Channel Improvement Study Web site: www.portofportlandor.com/chandeep.htm Sponsor: Portland District of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and seven lower Columbia River ports Contact: Laura Hicks, project manager, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Portland District, CENPP-PM, P.O. Box 2946, Portland, OR 97208, phone: (503) 326-6136, fax: (503) 326-6106 Brief description: This five-year study is evaluating the possibility of deepening the Columbia/Willamette River federal navigation channel three feet below its current 40 foot depth. The study includes two environmental impact statements, and will also determine the feasibility of implementing an ecosystem restoration project. The completion date is scheduled for 1999. A Dredged Material Management Study (DMMS) is also underway. The total combined cost for these studies, for the 1994-1999 period, is $9.6 million. Title: The Anadromous Fish Evaluation Program (AFEP) Web site: www.nwd.usace.army.mil/ps/ Sponsor: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, North Pacific Division Contact: Rudd Turner, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Environmental Resources Division, P.O. Box 2870, 220 NW Eight Ave., Portland, OR 97208, phone: (503) 808-3864, fax: (503) 808-3866 Brief description: Through the years, this program has funded a number of projects addressing estuarine conditions, and also the effects of different passage strategies on salmonid life histories. As an example, the study Evaluation of migration behavior of inriver or transported PIT-tagged juvenile salmonids in the estuary (project code: MPE-W-95-2) by Oregon State Univ., Univ. of Idaho, and U.S. Geological Survey-Biological Resources Division, will be completed during Fiscal Year 1999. 5. Useful services on the World Wide WebGiven the development of a major El Ni? propagating to the Northern Pacific in the Fall 1997 to summer 1998 period, a number of services were made available to the public and posted on the Internet. These web sites offered a variety of real-time and historic information and data on oceanographic and atmospheric conditions in the Northeastern Pacific Ocean in general and along the Pacific coast of the U.S. and Canada in particular. Descriptions of environmental anomalies, interpretation and modeling of observed and predicted conditions, visual animations, short- and long-term forecasts and potential effects were most useful in helping the Council and its staff, and the public at large understand the 1997-98 El Ni? event. Many of these web sites, in turn, point to other links of interest. The following table lists some examples of informative web sites on ocean conditions in the Pacific Northwest:
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