Slide 30 of 33
Notes:
This aggregate resource development forecast for the Pacific Northwest includes the load-resource areas of western Washington & Oregon, eastern Washington and Oregon and northern Idaho, southern Idaho, and Montana.
Several older, inefficient oil-fired gas turbines and a biomass unit are retired in early years (these retirements have occurred). Scheduled additions include the Vansycle wind project in 1998, the Klickitat landfill gas facility in 1999 and the Klamath Falls combined-cycle project in 2001. Small-scale additions of landfill gas units, driven by the production credit assumption continue through 2005. At that time the estimated inventory of this resource is exhausted.
Beginning in 2004, gas-fired combined-cycle units are forecast to be added at the rate of 500 to 750 MW per year. Blocks of wind turbines are added in 2009 and 2010, after which the assumed renewable production incentive expires.
The timing of the earliest market-driven combined-cycle addition (2004) is intuitively late given current levels of developer activity in the Northwest. However, this date is fairly insensitive to factors likely to affect the the timing of market-driven development.
