Slide 14 of 33
Notes:
This chart shows the effect of adding new generation to the system on loss of load probability for the winter of 2003.
No new generation results in an LOLP of 24 percent, about a one in four chance of not making it through the winter.
The Council believes this is an unacceptable risk for the Northwest power system.
Historically, utilities and regulatory commissions have used standards as high as one event in twenty years, which translates into an LOLP of five percent.
Attaining a one in twenty standard would require the Northwest to add almost 3000 MW of new, reliable generation or controllable demand side reduction resources by 2003.
