Slide 13 of 33
Notes:
One way utilities historically have thought about generation reliability is loss of load probability. LOLP is the probability that generation will be insufficient to meet demand at some point over some specific time window.
We’ve defined the winter months, December to February as the time window, and in 500 simulations, examined 1,080,000 hours. About 1300 had some level of unserved demand.
Any reliability event in any hour of a winter (regardless of size or duration) causes a winter to be recorded as one in which load was lost.
Out of the 500 winters simulated, load was lost at some point in 120 of them, resulting in an LOLP for Winter, 2003 of 24 percent.
